The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...

We undertake a variance decomposition of index-linked bond returns for the US, UK and Iceland. In all cases, news about future excess returns is the key driver though only for Icelandic bonds are returns independent of inflation.

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...

This paper proposes that there is a dynamic relationship between interest and inflation rates that are jointly determined due to the dual existence of Fisher and Wicksell processes. The Fisher process is the positive relationship between inflation and interest rates wherein causality runs from...

We propose a new method of estimating the natural real rate and long-horizon inflation expectations, using nonlinear regressions of survey-based measures of short-term nominal interest rates and inflation expectations on U.S. Treasury yields. We find that the natural real rate was relatively...

We propose a new method of estimating the natural real rate and long-horizon inflation expectations, using nonlinear regressions of survey-based measures of short-term nominal interest rates and inflation expectations on U.S. Treasury yields. We find that the natural real rate was relatively...

We investigate the volatility of real interest rates in 10 countries. An equilibrium model with financial frictions mimics the volatility of real rates and predicts a negative correlation of the conditional variance with the business cycle. Our contribution investigates the level and conditional...

This paper examines three empirical measures of the ex ante 10-year real interest rate: inflation-indexed government bond yields and two Fisher-hypothesis proxies based on survey inflation expectations and a shifting endpoint econometric forecasting model. Consistency between the alternative...