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subordinated bond yield spreads over senior unsecured bonds, and links the bond yields developments with the characteristics of the … play a key role in explaining bond spreads. Interestingly, after the introduction of the new bail-in framework, there is a … convergence between the bond yields of the GSIBs and the non-GSIBs, which could point out to a reduction in the market perception …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104463
We combine modern methods from Speech Emotion Recognition and Natural Language Processing with high-frequency financial data to analyze how the vocal emotions and language of ECB President Mario Draghi affect the yield curve of major euro area economies. Vocal emotions significantly impact the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255461
, emerges as a strong predictor of Treasury bond returns of maturities ranging between one and ten years for return horizons up … economy. Our model qualitatively replicates the predictability pattern of IRVRP for bond returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012970993
Using different econometric models, Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337-364, 2006) addressed the practical problem of forecasting the yield curve by predicting the factors level, slope and curvature in the Nelson-Siegel framework. This paper has two main aims: on the one hand, to investigate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011311742
I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond returns. The main predictor factors are associated with point … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516
been performed in our recent working paper [5],"Enhancement of the Fisher-Weil bond technique immunization". So it is seen … curve ; Bond portfolio ; immunization ; optimization ; linearization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009566337
observed government bond yields and survey-based expected average short rates. Our term premiums measured directly based on … rates, and uncover a number of important facts: 1) the bulk of the variation in medium- and long-term bond yields is driven … shocks playing the most prominent role; and 5) the secular decline of U.S. long-term bond yields over the past thirty years …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011477349
This research investigates the macro factors for forecasting (1) bond risk premia and (2) term structure of government … bond yields by using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on empirical prior. Different from the traditional variable … further improve the other method's forecasting performance. The performance of using BMA to forecast bond excess return is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113732
there is no clear common sense for that. Our main purpose in this paper is to present how the classical Fisher-Weil bond … change approximation and the associated bond hedging technique can be enhanced, such that we are able to solve simultaneously … these two issues. The good approximation of the bond or portfolio change we derive, allows to get an interesting consequence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013117627
We examine term structure theories by using a novel approach. We form bond investment strategies based on different … indeed form the basis of a successful bond strategy that outperforms an unbiased expectation inspired passive bond buy and … if one uses information from the forward curve or the term structure as a guide to adjusting bond portfolios in response …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013101774