This note expands Kilian's (2008) original time series of exogenous oil supply shocks along two dimensions. First, we extend the sample period and include production shortfalls in OPEC member states during 2004:10-2018:12. Second, we also consider production shortfalls in non-OPEC countries. Our...

This paper analyzes the response of international oil producers to demand-induced changes in the real price of oil during 1975-2011. The goal is to disentangle fluctuations in OPEC and non-OPEC production and to derive consistent estimates of the short-run price elasticity of crude oil supply at...

I maximize present valued world GDP over the stockpile of petroleum used to contain price shocks administered by OPEC. Long run price elasticity of demand and non-OPEC supply exceed those in the short run, so OPEC profits from sudden, as opposed to gradual, increases in price. These shocks...

I estimate world demand for crude petroleum, the effect of petroleum prices on world income, and non OPEC supply of crude petroleum using seasonally adjusted data and a number of instruments. Structural breaks help explain stationarity in demand, and cointegration of variables suggests...

In this study, we report on the current state of the international market for crude oil. The market data we analyzed indicate that competition has intensified as a result of the now firmly-established shale oil extraction industry in the U.S. Model-based simulations also show that supply-side...

By making use of coefficients of cooperation [8] in a global oil model where OPEC producers are the dominant players and non-OPEC is the competitive fringe, we ask whether OPEC producers have strong incentives for imperfect collusion. First, assuming that OPEC members withhold supply only when...

Why did OPEC not cut oil production in the wake of 2014's price fall? This study aims at aiding the mostly qualitative discussion with quantitative evidence from computing quarterly partial market equilibria Q4 2011 - Q4 2015 under present short-term profit maximisation and different competition...

A model of global oil production is applied to study cartelization by OPEC countries. Writing out the shadow price on quota allocations so as to draw correspondence to coefficients of cooperation (Cyert et al. 1973), we examine the incentives that different OPEC members to collude. We find that...

OPEC's stated mission is to promote the economic development and growth of its member states while minimizing volatility in the oil markets. But after a promising beginning many member states - economies have declined rather than prospered - a clear indication of OPEC's failure to meet their...

Petroleum Exporting Countries in the crude oil exports have single-product, in other words income from selling oil or as the most imortant source of export income, or at least as one of the most imortant sources of income is considered to be exported.The analysis and policy issues macro-economic...