Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics....

This paper considers a general class of stochastic dynamic choice models with discrete and continuous decision variables. This class contains a variety of models that are useful for modeling intertemporal household decisions under risk. Our examples are drawn from the field of development...

Quadratic optimization for asset portfolios often leads to error maximization, with optimizers zooming in on large errors in the predicted inputs, that is, expected returns and risks. The consequence in most cases is a poor real-time performance. In this paper we show how to improve real-time...

We conduct an experiment to test whether the size of a loss and the time in a losing position affect investors’ adaptation to the loss situation and, subsequently, whether this adaptation affects future investment decisions. As investors adapt to losses, their neutral reference point shifts...

Latin American economies are exposed to substantial external vulnerability. Domestic imbalances and terms of trade shocks are often exacerbated by sudden financial distress. This paper explores ways of overcoming external vulnerability, drawing lessons from a detailed comparison of the response...

Es werden mehrere Anlagestrategien mit Hilfe von Stichproben und statistischen Signifikanztest untersucht,die in der Zeitschrift Capital als besonders erfolgversprechend empfohlen werden. Daraus lässt sich entnehmen, ob diese für eine Anlagestrategie zur Altersvorsorge eine gewisse Eignung...

In Ergänzung zu einem Aufsatz in der rv05-11 werden verschiedene Anlagestrategien anhand der erarbeiteten Kennziffern untersucht. Ausführliche Signifikanztests zeigen dabei, wieweit diese Strategien für Anlagen zur Altersvorsorge geeignet sind.

We experimentally explore how investor decision horizons influence the formation of stock prices. We find that in long-horizon sessions, where investors collect dividends till maturity, prices converge to the fundamental levels derived from dividends through backward induction. In short-horizon...

We consider individual's portfolio selection problems. Introducing the concept of ambiguity, we show the existence of portfolio inertia under the assumptions that decision maker's beliefs are captured by an inner measure, and that her preferences are represented by the Choquet integral with...

This paper analyzes investors' portfolio selection problems in a two-period dynamic model of Knightian uncertainty. We account for the existence of portfolio inertia in this two-period framework. Furthermore, by incorporating investors' up-dating behavior, we analyze how new observation in the...