A prolonged period of low inflation, particularly in a situation of monetary policy rates near the zero lower bound, can heighten the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring from the central bank objective. The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of a sequence of deflationary...

In this study we present a geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty. We design a positional indicator of disagreement among survey-based agents' expectations about the state of the economy. Previous dispersion-based uncertainty indicators derived from business and consumer surveys...

Financial derivatives linked to the median, which is the 50%-th percentile of a distribution, have not been extensively studied in realistic models of financial markets, as such derivatives simply did not exist until recently. The Libor reform that brought a seismic change to the interest rate...

A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

The increase in the price of gold between 2002 and 2011 appears to be a candidate for a potential asset price ‘bubble', suggesting that chartists (feedback traders) were highly active in the gold market during this period. Hence, this paper develops and tests empirically several models...

A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

This paper analyses the empirical performance of a new Keynesian sticky price model with delayed effects of monetary impulses on inflation and output for the German pre-EMU economy. The model is augmented with rule-of-thumb behaviour in consumption and price setting. Using recently developed...

We propose a novel procedure to identify the marginal stock market investor's beliefs from observed asset prices. Our approach recovers price-consistent beliefs, i.e. the distribution of macro and financial variables that satisfy the conditional Euler equations, given a cross-section of assets,...

A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...