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This note presents a nonparametric Bayesian approach to fitting a distribution to the survey data provided in Kilian and Zha (2002) regarding the prior for the half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). A point mass at infinity is included. The unknown density is represented as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403123
Efficient posterior simulators for two GARCH models with generalized hyperbolic disturbances are presented. The first model, GHt-GARCH, is a threshold GARCH with a skewed and heavy-tailed error distribution; in this model, the latent variables that account for skewness and heavy tails are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013105412
estimation of VARMAs is perceived to be challenging and proposed various ways to simplify it. Nevertheless, VARMAs continue to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021301
generalized tempering for "online" estimation, and provide examples of multimodal posteriors that are well captured by SMC methods …. We then use the online estimation of the DSGE model to compute pseudo-out-of-sample density forecasts of DSGE models with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038824
Similar to Ingram and Whiteman (1994), De Jong et al. (1993) and Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004) this study proposes a methodology of constructing Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) consistent prior distributions for Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) models. The moments of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339762
This study investigates the asymptotic properties of the Bayesian empirical likelihood (BEL), which uses the empirical likelihood as an alternative to a parametric likelihood for Bayesian inference. We establish two asymptotic equivalence results based on the Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012824835
vector can be recovered from the BVAR posterior estimates: a new 'quasi-Bayesian' DSGE estimation. An empirical application …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011886093
sufficiently flexible. However, flexible models are highly parameterized so estimation requires appropriate forms of regularization …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013231133
We propose to add ranking restrictions on impulse-responses to sign restrictions to narrow the identified set in vector autoregressions (VARs). Ranking restrictions come from micro data on heterogeneous industries in VARs, bounds on elasticities, or restrictions on dynamics. Using both a fully...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012432770
proposed algorithm, which is based on tempered importance sampling, adapts the model-based density forecasts to target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013463266