German Abstract: In der vorliegenden Studie wird der gesamte Business Analytics-Prozess an einem fiktiven Fallbeispiel der Filmproduktionsfirma CINEMAKE bearbeitet. Aus realen Daten wird eine Untersuchungsbasis erstellt, auf der verschiedene Methoden des maschinellen Lernens zum Einsatz kommen

Since the industry standard approach to judge on the effectiveness of promotion is based on the impact on expected sales it cannot grasp other impacts in the distribution of future sales. Since retailers operate with very high strategic service level targets (e.g. 98%) high quantiles of the...

Firstly, two seemingly unrelated topics of Russian politics are investigated. It is shown that under expected utility maximization the assumptions of an unbiased oil forward market and a risk-acceptant attitude (strictly convex utility function) of president Putin are sufficient to explain...

We present a worked out example in R (including sources in the appendix), where deep learning falls behind much simpler methods. It is an already published application of a LeNet style convolutional neural network (CNN) for image recognition. We show that this complex CNN is outperformed by a...

One of main consequences of the Global Financial Crisis is stricter banking regulation. In fact, the black and white of the regulators' output misleads people to believe that there will be no more bailouts in the future. But history teaches us that this statement should not be taken too...

Based on the most recent annual reports of HC we check its risk management. Since cement is manufactured through an energy-intensive process, the focus is on energy price risk. HC has been taken by surprise by soaring energy prices in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2018. This has led to (repeated) downgrades...

German Abstract: Die vorliegende Untersuchung beschäftigt sich mit den Einflussfaktoren auf das Rating von Staaten sowie auf die Zuordnung eines Investmentgrade-Status. Es werden ein Ordered Logit-Modell, ein Logit-Modell sowie ein Deep Learning-Modell konzipiert, die zur Prognose von...

If the creditworthiness of a counterparty is a derivative of a commodity price, there is the potential to have right- or wrong-way exposures in commodity transaction. Identifying them is important, because otherwise credit costs are inadequately calculated. This is especially important if one...

Based on the most recent annual report of thyssenkrupp we look for various features of modern risk management. It appears that there could be challenges to have a full view of low probability and high impact risks, to be able to perceive concentration as well as wrong way risks and to capture...