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Dynamic probabilistic forecasting with uncertainty

Benth, Fred Espen; Kutrolli, Gleda; Stefani, Silvana - In: International journal of theoretical and applied finance 24 (2021) 6/7, pp. 1-18

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012807773

The empirical performance of option based densities of foreign exchange

Craig, Ben R.; Keller, Joachim G. - 2002

Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431367

COMFORT: a common market factor non-Gaussian returns model

Paolella, Marc S.; Polak, Pawel - In: Journal of econometrics 187 (2015) 2, pp. 593-605

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011499783

Forecasting with option-implied information

Christoffersen, Peter F.; Jacobs, Kris; Chang, Bo Young - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507021

Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex - In: Journal of financial and quantitative analysis : JFQA 53 (2018) 6, pp. 2663-2683

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012128877

Did option prices predict the ERM crises?

Mizrach, Bruce Marshall - 1996

Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the … strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify … promising in explaining the volatility smile. Applying this to the ERM data, I find that the probability of a devaluation in the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011577049