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Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies

Hutter, Christian; Weber, Enzo - 2013

The paper investigates the predictive power of a new survey implemented by the Federal Employment Agency (FEA) for forecasting German unemployment in the short run. Every month, the CEOs of the FEA’s regional agencies are asked about their expectations of future labor market developments. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010198066

Outperforming IMF forecasts by the use of leading indicators

Heinisch, Katja; Giesen, Sebastian; Lindner, Axel - 2014

This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339046

Markov switching with endogenous number of regimes and leading indicators in a real-time business cycle forecast : conference paper

Theobald, Thomas - 2013

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339952

Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen : zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen

Hüfner, Felix; Schröder, Michael - 2001

In der vorliegenden Arbeit untersuchen wir die Eignung der ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und der ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen als Frühindikatoren für die deutsche Industrieproduktion. Anhand von Granger-Kausalitätstests wird gezeigt, dass die auf Umfragen unter Finanzanalysten basierenden...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011445667

What predicts U.S. recessions?

Liu, Weiling; Mönch, Emanuel - 2014

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number of previously proposed leading-indicator variables. We employ an efficient probit estimator for partially missing data and assess relative model performance based on the receiver...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010404520

Outperforming IMF forecasts by the use of leading indicators : conference paper

Heinisch, Katja; Giesen, Sebastian; Lindner, Axel - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484392

The financial crisis from a forecaster’s perspective

Heinisch, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - 2011

This paper analyses the recession in 2008/2009 in Germany, which is very different from previous recessions, in particular regarding its cause and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail to detect the timing and the magnitude of the recession....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009126543

Forecasting economic activity in Germany : how useful are sentiment indicators?

Hüfner, Felix; Schröder, Michael - 2002

Managers Index (PMI) and the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (ZEW) lead the yearon-year growth rate of German industrial …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011447594

Forecasting Economic Activity with Higher Frequency Targeted Predictors

Bulligan, Guido - 2014

targeted predictors using data reduction techniques as in Bai and Ng (2008). We then compare a Diffusion Index forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013066551

Using a Leading Credit Index to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle

Levanon, Gad - 2012

activity due to their forward looking content. Indeed, the Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the United States, a widely used … into a single composite index of financial indicators which we name the Leading Credit Index (LCI). Our approach differs … from others in the literature in that we focus on a small, carefully selected set of indicators as index components and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112939