Ash, Thomas; Nikolaishvili, Giorgi; Struby, Ethan - 2023
. In a Bayesian vector autoregression, they identify a TFP news shock as one that explains the largest share of 40-quarter … ahead forecast error variance (FEV) of TFP. Their estimated impulse responses functions show that a positive news shock … significantly decreases credit market spreads and increases credit market supply. They also find that a shock that explains the …