In response to a request from the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission, we propose a model to estimate default probabilities for bonds issued by cities. The model can be used with financial data available in Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports that cities are required to...

We investigate the relationship between economic freedom and bond ratings at the state level by asking: Are state bond ratings, ceteris paribus, positively related to economic freedom? Using bounded Tobit we test for the relationship between economic freedom and an aggregate index comprised of...

Excessive borrowing of local governments in China sparked concerns that the debt may threaten the financial stability of the economy and ultimately cause economic collapse. It becomes critically important to understand the credit rating of China's LFGV bonds and the association between the...

This paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA downgrade...

We document capital misallocation in the U.S. investment-grade (IG) corporate bond market, driven by quantitative easing (QE). Prospective fallen angels - risky firms just above the IG rating cutoff-enjoyed subsidized bond financing since 2009, especially when the scale of QE purchases peaked...

The paper investigates the determinants of municipal bond ratings in Virginia using an ordered‐probit analysis. We find that economic factors are the key determinants of municipal bond ratings in the State. Our ordered‐probit model correctly predicts approximately 70% of the actual sample...

German government bonds are very popular among investors because of their liquidity and safety, and they are also widely used in repo transactions as collateral. During the recent financial crisis the excess demand for German securities pushed their yields below the theoretical risk-free rate....

This paper examines key determinants of the distance between the sovereign's credit rating and the ratings of sub-sovereign foreign currency bonds, such as bond issuers' type, debt characteristics, and global and country's economic conditions. Using a comprehensive international bond-level...