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Central banks often face tradeoffs in how their monetary policy decisions impact economic activity (including employment), inflation and the price level. This paper assesses how these tradeoffs have evolved over time and varied across countries, with a focus on understanding the post-pandemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015405430
I quantify the causal impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on time-varying expected returns. The exogenous timing of macroeconomic announcements provides an instrument for uncertainty. Using daily measures of macroeconomic uncertainty and expected equity market returns, I find announcements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240699
Using U.S. data from 1926 to 2015, I show that financial skewness?a measure comparing cross-sectional upside and downside risks of the distribution of stock market returns of financial firms?is a powerful predictor of business cycle fluctuations. I then show that shocks to financial skewness are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014115594
of housing adjustment. In the time-series dimension, the model accounts for the pro-cyclicality and volatility of housing … following question: what are the consequences for aggregate volatility of an increase in household income and a decrease in down … can explain: (1) 45 percent of the reduction in the volatility of household investment; (2) the decline in the correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038658
time-series, the model matches the procyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of mortgage … and lower downpayments, and find that these two changes can explain, in the model and in the data, the reduced volatility … of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of mortgage debt, and a small fraction of the reduced volatility of GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013113410
We analyze the implications of financial openness to macroeconomic volatility in a small open economy. Major … macroeconomic aggregates show non-monotonic volatility patterns with respect to the degree of financial openness in the model … without domestic financial frictions. The introduction of domestic financial frictions makes the volatility patterns flatter …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003449265
price in inflation risk premia. Estimation results strongly suggest that the decline in macroeconomic volatilities might …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012734024
Ljungqvist and Sargent (2017) (LS) show that unemployment fluctuations can be understood in terms of a quantity they call the "fundamental surplus." However, their analysis ignores risk premia, a force that Hall (2017) shows is important in understanding unemployment fluctuations. We show how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012649569
-free rate and its volatility. The results of the linearity test against nonlinear alternatives suggest that there is clear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130485
for macroeconomic outcomes? Using an affine term structure model, we shed new light on these questions. Estimation is … subject to restrictions addressing an estimation bias in expected interest rates obtained by previous studies. Highfrequency … the transmission mechanism and broadly consistent with macroeconomic theory. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012316011