This paper explores whether the cost channel solves the price puzzle. We set-up a New Keynesian DSGE model and estimate it for the euro area by adopting a minimum distance approach. Our findings suggest that - under certain parameter restrictions which are not rejected by the data - the cost...

This paper presents a new methodology for the quantification of qualitative survey data. Traditional conversion methods, such as the probability approach of Carlson and Parkin (1975) or the time-varying parameters model of Seitz (1988), require very restrictive assumptions concerning the...

It can be shown that inflation expectations and associated forecast errors are characterized by a high degree of persistence. One reason may be that forecasters cannot directly observe the inflation target pursued by the central bank and, hence, face a complicated forecasting problem. In...

Since the seminal article of Bates and Granger (1969), a large number of theoretical and empirical studies have shown that pooling different forecasts of the same event tends to outperform individual forecasts in terms of forecast accuracy. However, the results remain heterogenous regarding the...

Seit 2012 steht die Produktionslücke im Zentrum der Regelbindung der Fiskalpolitik in der Europäischen Union im Rahmen des Fiskalpakts. Die Schätzwerte für die Produktionslücke legen den finanzpolitischen Spielraum fest, unter dem sich die Mitgliedsländer verschulden dürfen. Der Artikel...

Die Kurzfristprognose für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt, also die Prognose des laufenden und folgenden Quartals, nimmt eine gewichtige Stellung in der Erstellung längerfristiger Vorhersagen ein. Regionale Kurzfristprognosen sind aber bis dato kein Bestandteil der wissenschaftlichen Literatur. Im...

We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each...