There have recently been suggestions for monetary policy to engineer higher inflation expectations so as to stimulate current spending. But what is the empirical relationship between inflation expectations and spending? We use the underlying micro data from the Michigan Survey of Consumers to...

I use a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the impact of monetary and technology shocks on the euro area stock market in 1987-2005. I find an important role for technology shocks, but not monetary shocks, in explaining variations in real stock prices. The identification...

In einer jüngst veröffentlichten Studie im Auftrag der Bertelsmann-Stiftung gelangt die Prognos AG zu dem Fazit, dass Deutschland erhebliche Vorteile durch den Euro hat. Um dies zu zeigen, prognostizieren die Autoren der Studie die Entwicklung des deutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in den Jahren...

In this paper I assess the ability of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models of different size to forecast comovements of major macroeconomic series in the euro area. Both approaches are compared to unrestricted VARs in terms of...

This paper provides novel evidence on the time varying impact of government spending shocks on output in Germany over the years 1970 to 2013. In a first step, I use an expectations-augmented vector autoregressive model with time varying parameters (TVP-VAR) to show that fiscal multipliers are...

This paper explores the relationship between equity prices and the current account for 17 industrialized countries in the period 1980-2007. Based on a panel vector autoregression, I compare the effects of equity price shocks to those originating from monetary policy and exchange rates. While...

This paper explores the relation between stock prices and the current account for 17 OECD countries in 1980-2007. I use a panel vector autoregression (VAR) to compare the effects of stock price shocks to those originating from monetary policy and exchange rates. While monetary policy shocks have...

I investigate the transmission of U.S. stock price shocks to real activity and prices in G-7 countries using a multicountry vector autoregressive (VAR) model. I achieve identification by imposing a small number of sign restrictions on impulse responses, while controlling for monetary policy,...

I use a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the impact of monetary and technology shocks on the euro area stock market in 1987-2005. I find an important role for technology shocks, but not monetary shocks, in explaining variations in real stock prices. The identification...