In this paper, another factor that affects equity risk premium is derived from a simple classical monetary model, which basically adds back labor-leisure to a simple consumption-only consumption-based asset pricing model. If every present/future good is traded at time t=0, just as in traditional...

We identify the S-Shaped consumption utility by reconciling consumption decisions with asset returns. Different from the concave-shaped utility, the S-shaped consumption utility predicts a possible negative correlation between low quantiles of consumption growth and asset returns, for which we...

The equity premium puzzle describes the enigma between the theoretical model of consumption behavior and its empirical calibration. We believe, this puzzle is based on a logical inconsistency in which deterministic and stochastic quantities are not precisely separated: The empirical literature...

We derive the equilibrium interest rate and risk premiums using recursive utility for jump-diffusions. Compared to to the continuous version, including jumps allows for a separate risk aversion related to jump size risk in addition to risk aversion related to the continuous part. The jump part...

The basic inability of standard theoretical models to generate a sufficiently large and variable nominal bond risk premium has been termed the "bond premium puzzle." We show that the term premium on long-term bonds in the canonical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model used in...

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact pessimistic, but show marked...

The risk premium puzzle is even worse than previously reported if housing is also taken into consideration next to equity. While housing premia are only moderately smaller than equity premia, they are significantly less volatile and the Sharpe ratio of housing is significantly larger. Hence,...

We analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. Chief Financial Officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to March 2009. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. The last two surveys were conducted...

This article explores the behavior of the stock market in Colombia with the information given by the Bolsa de Bogota Index (Indice de la Bolsa de Bogota, IBB). The index is analyzed from January, 1930 to December, 1998. The inflation rate covers the same period; the inflation rate as measured by...

The estimation of expected security returns is one of the major tasks for the practical implementation of the Markowitz portfolio optimization. Against this background, in 1992 Black and Litterman developed an approach based on (theoretically established) expected equili-brium returns which...