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We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long-lasting recessions. In the model, higher uncertainty about fundamentals discourages investment. Since agents learn from the actions of others, information flows slowly in times of low...
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three changes to the model—recalibration, a risk-premium shock, and a disaster risk-type shock—to try and restore their …Basu and Bundick (2017) show a second moment intertemporal preference shock creates meaningful declines in output in a … sticky price model with Epstein and Zin (1991) preferences. The result, however, rests on the way they model the shock. If a …
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We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in the volatility of macroeconomic time series. Second, we enumerate the mechanisms that researchers have postulated to...
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