We introduce a Bayesian instrumental variable procedure with spatial random effects that handles endogeneity, and spatial dependence with unobserved heterogeneity. We take into account the endogeneity through a system of simultaneous equations where a conditional correlation between the...

In this paper we analyze the effect of four possible alternatives regarding the prior distributions in a linear model with autoregressive errors to predict piped water consumption: Normal-Gamma, Normal-Scaled Beta two, Studentized-Gamma and Student's t-Scaled Beta two. We show the effects of...

Currently, the world is facing a continuous process of integration in di fferent aspects and fi nancial markets are no exception to this development. Despite the fact that global integration is gradual, one can fi nd some specfi c events that might help to accelerate this trend. This paper shows...

Model uncertainty remains a persistent concern when exploring the drivers of civil conflict and civil war. Considering a comprehensive set of 34 potential determinants in 175 post-Cold-War countries (covering 98.2% of the world population), we employ stochastic search variable selection (SSVS)...

This paper uses count and binary data models with endogenous switching, and propensity score matching to evaluate the effect of the subsidized health care program in Medellin (Colombia). The subsidized program, which primarily covers poor people, is found to have a negative association with the...

Economic tradition establishes that human beings' reproductive behaviour is based on rational actions. This theory is completely plausible; however, there is another part to this story, whatever else we may be, we are animals, and this biological heritage instinctively affects our reproductive...

The main objective in this paper is to obtain reliable long-term and short-term elasticities estimates of the beef demand in Colombia using quarterly data since 1998 until 2007. However, complexity on the decision process of consumption should be taken into account, since expenditure on a...

Spanish Abstract: En este artículo se exponen en primera instancia, las características relevantes de los diversos modelos que se han desarrollado a través de la historia con el objetivo de explicar el comportamiento que presenta la tasa de cambio nominal, y en segundo lugar, se realiza la...

This paper presents several "ex ante" simulation exercises of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Specifically, we estimate the probabilities of each national team advancing to different stages, using a basic Bayesian approach based on conjugate families. In particular, we use the Categorical-Dirichlet...

Spanish Abstract: El objetivo de este artículo es identificar determinantes que llevan a los individuos a tomar la decisión de ser empresarios en Medellín AM en 2009. Mediante modelos Logit y Probit Multinomial, y Logit Binario secuencial, se estima la probabilidad de que una persona tome la...