There are several widely used benchmark models of the long-term interest rate in quantitative finance. However, these models have yet to incorporate Keynes’s valuable insights about interest rate dynamics. The Keynesian approach to interest rate dynamics can be readily incorporated in the...

This paper revisits the exchange rate and interest rate differential relationship since Ghana adopted the inflation targeting regime. Using macro-data spanning 2002 to 2019 for Ghana and the United States, we show the nonexistence of the relationship in both the short-run and long-run. Further,...

Monetary policy moves the yield curve. How much is due to expected interest rates versus term premia? And what are the macroeconomic consequences? Applying an affine term structure model to high-frequency yield curve movements around FOMC announcements, we shed new light on these questions....

This is a survey of the basic theoretical foundations of intertemporal asset pricing theory. The broader theory is first reviewed in a simple discrete-time setting, emphasizing the key role of state prices. The existence of state prices is equivalent to the absence of arbitrage. State prices,...

Central banks no longer set the short-term interest rates that they use for monetary policy purposes by manipulating the supply of banking system reserves, as in conventional economics textbooks; this process normally involves little or no variation in the supply of central bank liabilities. In...

This paper develops a macro-finance term structure model based on the expectations hypothesis extended to include a time-varying term premium. The model establishes inter alia the link between quantitative easing and the term premium, allowing us to measure the total impact on the bond yield of...

We analyse spillovers from European Central Bank (ECB) policy sur-prises to asset markets outside the euro area using Switzerland as a case study. Our results suggest that Swiss asset price responses to ECB policy surprises are significant. They depend on the type and nature of the surprise and...

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan (CNY)-denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. The financial sector plays a vital role in the Chinese economy, which has grown rapidly in the past several decades. Going forward, interest rate swaps are likely to have an important role in...

We estimate a DSGE model with Preferences Over Safe Assets (POSA) on Euro Area macroeconomic data and interest rate expectations measures. The model with POSA has much better empirical fit than the otherwise identical model without, especially once interest rate expectations are added to the...

We find that real interest rates paid on government debt depend significantly upon current and expected future levels of debt, in Europe as in the US. But this result only emerges when we condition on foreign interest rates, illustrating financial international integration. The previously strong...