The recent financial crisis proved that financial contagion could spread among countries resulting in disruptive effects. In this paper, by modeling and simulating banking system behavior and linkages across countries, we assess, based on data from the BIS and IMF, the possible outcome of...

We examine the role of U.S. monetary policy in global financial stability by using a cross-country database spanning the period from 1870-2010 across 69 countries. U.S. monetary policy tightening increases the probability of banking crises for those countries with direct linkages to the U.S.,...

This paper studies the long-run evolution of bank risk and its links to the macroeconomy. Using data for 17 advanced economies, we show that the riskiness of bank assets declined materially between 1870 and 2016. But even though bank assets have become safer, the losses on these assets are...

This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (sudden stops) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976-2002. If the banking sector does not...

Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial stability. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since the 19th...

The global financial crisis of 2008 was a crisis affecting both the financial sector and the “real economy.” This paper analyzes the transmission of unexpected shocks from the financial sector in the US to other countries and sectors. We test the hypothesis that the financial crisis spread...

This paper analyzes the incidences of sector-specific contagion during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. The empirical analysis comprising ten sectors in 25 major developed and emerging stock markets shows that the crisis led to an increased co-movement of returns and thus contagion...