This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory …-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters …

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behaviour of professional forecasters. The first theory …-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to the alternative reputational cheap talk theory, forecasters …

Several recent empirical papers assert that the decision to disclose an earnings forecast shortly before the actual … dynamic model of voluntary disclosure, we show that the decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast reveals managers … decision to disclose a short-term earnings forecast predicts earnings three years beyond the forecasted period, and that the …

predictability, popular predictors from the literature fail to outperform the simple historical average benchmark forecast in out … model restrictions, forecast combination, diffusion indices, and regime shifts—improve forecasting performance by addressing …

yield curve information at long forecast horizons, especially when allowing for time-varying combination weight. These gains …

predict realized correlations. This paper considers a MIDAS approach to forecast realized correlation matrices. A MIDAS model …

crisis, or, if a different forecast horizon, or, intraday sampling frequency is employed, respectively. Finally, our evidence …