This research uses spectral methodology to study how the volatility of spot exchange rate misalignments changed as a result of (1) signing of the Plaza Accord and (2) introduction of the Euro. We study the deviations of Canadian Dollar/US Dollar, Japanese Yen/US Dollar and US Dollar/British...

In 2001, Modern Turkey experienced the most severe financial collapse in its history during the implementation of an anti-inflationary, fixed-exchange-rate-based stabilisation program. An important part of critisms following this collapse focused on the exchange rates. The main argument was that...

In this paper a non-linear model is applied, where suddenly strong spurts of exports occur when changes of the exchange rate go beyond a zone of inaction, which we call “play” area – analogous to mechanical play. We implement an algorithm describing path-dependent play-hysteresis into a...

This paper studies the factors that maintain a long-run equilibrium, short-run impact, and causality with the exchange rate of Mongolia over China to shed light on exchange rate determination. Our cointegration analysis shows that in the long run the gross domestic products (GDP) of China and...

This paper will outline the functionality available in the CovRegpy package for actuarial practitioners, wealth managers, fund managers, and portfolio analysts written in Python 3.7. The major contributions of CovRegpy can be found in the CovRegpy_DCC.py, CovRegpy_IFF.py, CovRegpy_RCR.py,...

One of the most important factors to control for the achievements of investment portfolio returns is risk. If we only think that a 100% positive return is needed to recover a portfolio loss of 50%, we can understand why. With the advent of the exponential growth of technology usage in markets,...

We introduce a high-dimensional structural time series model, where co-movement between the components is due to common factors. A two-step estimation strategy is presented, which is based on principal components in differences in a first step and state space methods in a second step. The...

Many important economic decisions are based on a parametric forecasting model that is known to be good but imperfect. We propose methods to improve out-of-sample forecasts from a misspecified model by estimating its parameters using a form of local M estimation (thereby nesting local OLS and...

Many important economic decisions are based on a parametric forecasting model that is known to be good but imperfect. We propose methods to improve out-of-sample forecasts from a misspecified model by estimating its parameters using a form of local M estimation (thereby nesting local OLS and...