This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 … prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation … inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long …

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 … prices and the conditions under which, in general, one would expect commodity prices to be a leading indicator of inflation … inflation. We find that commodity and consumer prices are not co-integrated; the hypothesis that there is a reliable long …

This paper present a variety of approaches to estimating error-correction relationships between CPI inflation and … selected commodity price indices, based on their ability to to forecast out-of-sample predictions of CPI inflation. Depending … on specification, commodity prices have marginal value as predictors of inflation …