While prediction markets have become increasingly popular to forecast the near-term future, the literature provides little evidence on how they perform for long-term problems. For assessing the long-term, decision-makers traditionally rely on experts, although empirical research disputes the...

In 2004, Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzán, and Randy Jones launched the PollyVote to see if combining forecasts from different methods could improve the accuracy of election forecasting relative to individual forecasting methods. Scott had previously reported evidence that combining nearly always...

Foresight’s Spring 2011 issue included Robert Rieg and Ramona Schoder’s article “Corporate Prediction Markets: Pitfalls and Barriers” on the hurdles that must be overcome to properly establish a corporate prediction market (CPM). They enumerated four principal obstacles: (1) identifying...

In this new installment of the prediction markets column, Andreas Graefe summarizes the evidence he has uncovered on whether the design and implementation of a prediction market is worth the extra cost and effort involved, compared to a simple survey of the judgment of key individuals. Copyright...

We used the take-the-best heuristic to develop a model to forecast the popular two party vote shares in U.S. presidential elections. The model draws upon information about how voters expect the candidates to deal with the most important issue facing the country. We used cross-validation to...