We analyze the evolution and drivers of inflation during the pandemic and the likely trajectory of inflation in the … near-term using an event study of inflation around global recessions and a factor-augmented vector auto-regression (FAVAR …) model. We report three main results. First, the decline in global inflation during the 2020 global recession was the most …

Global inflation has risen sharply from its lows in mid-2020, on rebounding global demand, supply bottlenecks, and … soaring food and energy prices, especially since the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine. Markets expect inflation to … developments, the risk of stagflation-a combination of high inflation and sluggish growth-has risen. The recovery from the …

(like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation … expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of … Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low …

and inflation. Simultaneous monetary policy and macroprudential policy shocks do not alter the reaction of inflation … die Auswirkungen von monetären Schocks auf die Volatilität der Finanzvariablen, nicht aber der Produktion und Inflation …. Gleichzeitige geldpolitische und makroprudenzielle Schocks verändern die Reaktion der Inflation im Vergleich zu einem …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …

Long-term inflation expectations in the euro area reached historically low levels at the end of 2019, suggesting a … possible de-anchoring from the European Central Bank’s “below, but close to, 2 per cent” inflation aim. The decline in long …-term inflation expectations exerted a downward pressure on inflation between 2014 and 2016, and in 2019. Counterfactual simulations …

Using the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's Business Inflation Expectations (BIE) survey, which has been continuously …

The uncertainty of U.S. core inflation, measured by the stochastic volatility of forecast errors, has soared to a level … increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …

This paper focuses on modelling and forecasting inflation in India using an augmented Phillips curve framework. Both … demand and supply factors are seen as drivers of inflation. Demand conditions are found to have a stronger impact on non …-food manufactured products inflation (NFMP) vis-a-vis headline WPI inflation; moreover, NFMP is found to be more persistent than …