Should an investor enter into long-term positions in oil futures contracts? In answering this question, this paper will cover the following three considerations: (1) the case for structural positions in crude oil futures contracts; (2) useful indicators for avoiding crash risk; and (3) financial...

In a previous working paper I analyzed the performance of several rolling strategies for the 5 most important Energy Futures in the last 10 years. It was assumed that one is always long the Futures. The task was to minimize the harm of rolling. Due to the weak performance of this sector there...

Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we...

Since the collapse of the Metallgesellschaft AG due to hedging losses in 1993, energy practitioners have been concerned with the ability to hedge long-dated linear and non-linear oil liabilities with short-dated futures and options. This paper identifies a model-free non-parametric approach to...

Due to the fact that oil prices had a falling outlook after the global crisis, modeling oil market prices has been a topic of interest among researchers. The goals of this study are to investigate the recession or growth periods of oil futures markets using Markov switching autoregressive...

We study the state-dependent trading behavior of financial intermediaries in the oil futures market, using structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching in heteroskedasticity. We decompose changes in futures price volatility into changes in the slopes of traders' demand curves and in...

This paper documents new evidence against perfect risk spanning in crude oil futures, and develops an a ffine futures pricing model that allows for unspanned macroeconomic factors. Compared to previous estimates, the oil spot premium is more volatile and strongly procyclical which suggests that...