This paper investigates the role of the term spread to predict domestic output and inflation in less developed financial market with the focus on Malaysia bond market. By controlling for past values of the dependent variable, this paper finds that the term spread of various bond maturities...

Since December 2008, the Federal Reserve’s traditional policy instrument, the target federal funds rate, has been effectively at its lower bound of zero. In order to further ease the stance of monetary policy as the economic outlook deteriorated, the Federal Reserve purchased substantial...

Methodological suggestions are made for two separate issues. First, I show how a consistent estimate of the level of the expected inflation can be gleaned from inflation swap rates. Second, I indicate how the dynamic general equilibrium model in question can be modified to generate the observed...

The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we...

A multitude of factors contributed to the housing booms and crashes experienced in many countries and the ensuing global financial crisis. Much of the existing research on these issues assumes that agents have complete information about the economic environment and form rational expectations....

We investigate the relation between aggregate trading imbalances and interest rates in the Euro money market. We use data for OTC contracts as well as information from the major electronic trading platform in Europe to study the presence of cointegration between trading pressures and money...

This paper studies the forecasting performance of the general equilibrium model of bond yields of Marzo, Söderström and Zagaglia (2008), where long-term interest rates are an integral part of the monetary transmission mechanism. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods on Euro area data. I...

Studies of the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) policy have tended to focus on its impact on financial markets and the broader macroeconomy. Less attention has been given to the effect on banks’ balance sheets and bank lending. In this paper we use a new non-publicly available...

Money demand specifications exhibits instability, especially for long spans of data. This paper reconsiders the welfare cost of inflation for the US economy using a flexible timevarying cointegration methodology to estimate the money demand function. We find evidence that the time-varying...

This paper investigates whether changes in monetary transmission mechanism respond to variations in asset prices. We distinguish between bull and bear markets and employ a TVP- VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the monetary policy in relation to housing and stock...