Banking crises are rare events, however when they occur they often have dramatic consequences. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the toolkit of early warning models available to policy makers by exploring the dynamics and non-linearities embedded in a panel dataset covering several...

Using micro-level data on the entire population of business loans of a bank-based economy, we empirically test some of the core predictions of the SME financing literature, examining banks' lending specializations in firm size and lending technologies. Rejecting the conventional belief that...

In this paper we explore the process of convergence to firms' target leverage ratios. Using a unique dataset of micro, small, medium and large firms, we find that this process is very fast, most notably for smaller firms. We further explore these results by analyzing different convergence...

In a unique dataset that covers virtually all bank loans granted in Portugal, we find that when a firm borrows from one additional bank, the interest rate on bank loans for this firm decreases on average by 14 to 28 basis points. The result holds for small firms but not for larger firms. We test...

We use variation in the access to a government credit certification program in Portugal to estimate the sensitivity of SMEs investment and employment to the cost of debt financing. Targeted firms have access to a credit certification and loan guarantees. We use a multidimensional regression...

We show that banks' lending exposure to firms with government procurement contracts can amplify the diabolic loop between sovereigns and banks. Using the fiscal austerity measures implemented during the 2010-2011 European sovereign debt crisis as a shock to government procurement, we find that...

How does corporate reorganization affect labor reallocation in bankruptcy? In this paper, we provide evidence that reorganization is an important source of labor insurance against bankruptcy shocks, including for workers who eventually move to other firms. We measure the effect of reorganization...

This paper presents the analysis underpinning the ESRB Recommendation on guidance on setting countercyclical buffer rates (ESRB 2014/1). The Recommendation is designed to help authorities tasked with setting the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) to operationalise this new macroprudential...

This paper studies how banks’ balance sheets and funding costs interact in the transmission of monetary-policy rates to banks’ credit supply to firms. To do so, we use credit-registry data from Germany and Portugal together with the European Central Bank’s policy-rate cuts in mid-2014. The...