The arithmetic mean-variance frontier shows that taking more risk is always rewarded with higher expected arithmetic return. This article shows that there is a danger from being too aggressive that is not reflected in the arithmetic return mean-variance frontier because expected arithmetic...

The stock market is not likely to be efficient. This paper provides examples of why. Specifically, it shows how lack of understanding by investors and financial analysts can distort prices in relation to fair value

High expected returns are attractive but are associated with high risk. Ultimately, risk shows up as volatility. Volatility is a fundamental feature of a business but can be increased through firm or investor leverage. Volatility without leverage significantly reduces long term return. Leverage...

This paper contrasts the perspectives provided by the traditional Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) analysis, which uses arithmetic returns, and the Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) analysis, which uses continuous returns. The MPT analysis implies that an efficient portfolio's reward is...

U.S. pension funds currently own about $1.3 trillion of domestic equities. About 30% of this is invested in index funds. Index funds deliver only the return of the index less a discount. A credible investment product that assures the return of a benchmark plus a premium is an attractive...

Fundamental stock analysts covering the insurance industry may be overly influenced by infrequent large scale catastrophes, such as unusually strong hurricanes. It is important for these analysts to be able to put catastrophes in financial perspective in order to set an appropriate fair value on...

Ideally, an index fund should provide the best possible tradeoff between expected return and risk for the investor who has no research advantage. A number of practical problems arise, however, when one attempts to translate this ideal into practice. Even in the absence of a research advantage, a...