Using only daily data on bond and stock returns, we identify and characterize flight to safety (FTS) episodes for 23 countries. On average, FTS days comprise less than 3% of the sample, and bond returns exceed equity returns by 2.5 to 4%. The majority of FTS events are country-specific not...

Despite a large and growing theoretical literature on flights to safety, there does not appear to exist an empirical characterization of flight-to-safety (FTS) episodes. Using only data on bond and stock returns, we identify and characterize flight to safety episodes for 23 countries. On...

We apply causality extraction (CE) algorithms on more than 36,000 articles from 2 major financial newspapers (WSJ, FT) and three major newswires (DJ, MNI Market News, Reuters) over the extended period 1980-2020 to shed light on the fundamental triggers of flights to safety. Our CE algorithm...

Sovereign bond issuance by emerging market countries is growing in both volume and frequency. The global credit rating agencies have eagerly assigned ratings to the new issuers. Traditional approaches to measuring country risk, however, may fall short when applied to developing economies. What...

Using the announcement of the first Greek bailout on April 11, 2010, we quantify significant spillover effects from sovereign to corporate credit risk in Europe. A ten percent increase in sovereign credit risk raises corporate credit risk on average by 1.1 percent after the bailout. These...

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main...

This study investigates the tail dependence structures of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) and three global risk factors in BRICS countries using a copula approach, which is popular for capturing the “true” tail dependence based on the “distribution-adjusted” joint marginals. The...

Does gross or net debt matter for long-term sovereign spreads in emerging markets? The topic is important for understanding the borrowing cost implications of public asset liability management decisions (e.g. using assets to lower debt). We investigate this question using data on emerging market...

The first Greek bailout on April 11, 2010 triggered a significant reevaluation of sovereign credit risk across Europe. We exploit this event to examine the transmission of sovereign to corporate credit risk. A ten percent increase in sovereign credit risk raises corporate credit risk on average...