This paper proposes the design of an early warning system (EWS) to evaluate the possibility of public debt crisis in Mexico. For the EWS construction we use the signal detection theory based on non-parametric statistics and exploratory data analysis. We generated a mainly classified index, which...

We examine whether US and German state governments pursue sustainable fiscal policies taking into account fiscal transfers. Using panel data techniques we investigate whether the debt-to-GDP ratio had a positive influence on the primary surplus (Bohn-model). We show that including/excluding...

This study assesses fiscal sustainability in contemporary Spain at the regional level. Spain consists of 17 autonomous regions, two fiscal regimes differing in taxing autonomy, and two path-dependent types of communities with more and less legislatively recognized autonomy. Three of the 17...

Public debt developments in the CEE countries (by A. Miklaszewicz; pp. 1-4) Keywords public debt, sustainability, CEE Countries covered CEE Topics Macroeconomic Analysis, Forecasts and Policy China's quest for oil abroad between state and market (by W. Urban; pp. 5-11) Keywords oil supply and...

Unstable Balkans (by Vladimir Gligorov; pp. 1-4) Keywords political tensions, unemployment, austerity Countries covered SEE Topics Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy Not a very Greek tragedy (by Jan Toporowski; pp. 5-7) Keywords public debt, financial market, monetary policy, currency union...

In this paper, we investigate the trade-off between the need for budget consolidation and the desirability of expansionary fiscal policies as a means of demand management by simulating alternative scenarios with a macroeconometric model of the Slovenian economy. The simulations show that for the...

In this paper, we simulate a macroeconometric model of Slovenia over the period 2012–2060, using the projected demographic development as input, and determine time paths for budgetary and macroeconomic variables under alternative assumptions about Slovenian policy instruments so as to limit...

The basic aim of this article is to consider the effect of the current financial crisis on the movements and sustainability of the public debt in the period up to 2013. It is shown that changes in the public debt come from the effect of the primary deficit created, stockflow adjustment, the real...