Standard solution methods for linearised models with rational expectations take the structural parameters to be constant. These solutions are fundamental for likelihood-based estimation of such models. Regime changes, such as those as- sociated with either changed rules for economic policy,...

Structural change has been conjectured to lead to an upward bias in the estimated forward expectations coefficient in New-Keynesian Phillips curves. We present a simple New-Keynesian model that enables us to assess this proposition. In particular, we investigate the issue of upward bias in the...

Standard solution methods for linearised models with rational expectations take the structural parameters to be constant. These solutions are fundamental for likelihood-based estimation of such models. Regime changes, such as those associated with either changed rules for economic policy or...

The early history of cycles research involved locating turning points in the data. Later, the development of methods such as spectral analysis led to a focus on oscillations. A distinction between cycles and oscillations is needed - both imply turning points, but turning points do not...

Many papers which have estimated models with forward looking expectations have reported that the magnitude of the coefficients of the expectations term is very large when compared with the effects coming from past dynamics. This has sometimes been regarded as implausible and led to the feeling...