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World, country, and sector factors in international business cycles

Karadimitropoulou, Aikaterini; León-Ledesma, Miguel A. - 2013

model. The model contains a world factor, country-specific factors, sector-specific factors, and idiosyncratic components … country-factors. The world factor appears to play a minimal role because, when using aggregate data, the world factor captures … in the volatility of world shocks during the globalization period, rather than a lower sensitivity of sectoral growth to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009744615

National and international business cycle effects of housing crises

Jannsen, Nils - 2009

Housing crises usually go hand in hand with a long lasting recession and a considerable loss in output. We first re-examine the effects of a housing crises on the business cycle based on historical crises. Then we estimate the international spill-over-effects if several huge industrial countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003827190

Business Cycle Synchronisation : Disentangling Trade and Financial Linkages

Dees, Stephane - 2011

Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013128036

Are There Goodwin Employment-Distribution Cycles? International Empirical Evidence

García Molina, Mario - 2011

Goodwin's predator-prey model predicts clockwise cycles in the employment–distribution space. Qualitative evidence is provided in favour of nonlinear dynamic behaviour for a sample of 67 countries, some of which have cycles similar to those predicted by the model. Predicted centres lie outside...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013131341

Henriksen, Espen - 2013

Cyclical fluctuations in nominal variables|aggregate price levels and nominal interest rates are documented to be substantially more synchronized across countries than cyclical fluctuations in real output. A transparent mechanism that can account for this striking feature of the nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013075189

Potential Output and Recessions : Are We Fooling Ourselves?

Martin, Robert - 2015

This paper studies the impact of recessions on the longer-run level of output using data on 23 advanced economies over the past 40 years. We find that severe recessions have a sustained and sizable negative impact on the level of output. This sustained decline in output raises questions about...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014828

Dissecting Trade and Business Cycle Co-movement

Ko, Paul - 2020

Business cycles appear highly synchronized across countries. To understand this empirical phenomenon, I develop a multi-country international real business cycle model with international trade that offers several potential explanations: shocks to TFP, demand, leisure, investment, economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840130

Meta-Analysis of Chinese Business Cycle Correlation

Fidrmuc, Jarko - 2019

We summarize previous research on China's business cycle correlation with other countries with the help of meta-analysis techniques. We survey 71 related papers along with all the characteristics of the estimations as well as those of the authors. We confirm that especially Pacific Rim countries...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903337

Global Financial Cycles and Macroeconomic Linkages

Dhital, Saroj - 2019

Failure to sufficiently model financial variables and a possible time-varying relationship between the financial and macroeconomic sectors have been identified as two major shortcomings of the most prominent macroeconomic models. To this end, I examine time-varying linkages between the financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890381

Monitoring the World Business Cycle

Camacho, Maximo - 2017

perform short-term forecasts of world GDP quarterly growth in real time and to compute real-time business cycle probabilities … inferences of the world quarterly growth and of the world state of the business cycle on a monthly basis …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971237