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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2012

world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525

The Dynamics of the Permanent and Transitory Components in International Business Cycles

Papanyan, Shushanik - 2007

This paper proposes a generalized multivariate framework to measure the significance of common permanent and transitory components in international business cycle fluctuations. I employ a multivariate unobserved components model with Markov regime switching to investigate the nonlinear dynamics...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062640

Regionalization vs. Globalization

Hirata, Hideaki - 2013

Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078917

The Global Financial Cycle and Macroeconomic Tail Risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2022

the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013296625

The global financial cycle and macroeconomic tail risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2022

the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013459721

Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements

Guisinger, Amy; Owyang, Michael T.; Soques, Daniel - 2021

The effect of economic shocks on business cycles fluctuations may vary across industries. For example, shocks that originate in a single industry may propagate elsewhere, either up or down stream in the production chain. Thus, industries that are more connected may be more vulnerable to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252202

The Global Financial Cycle and Macroeconomic Tail Risks

Beutel, Johannes; Emter, Lorenz; Metiu, Norbert; … - 2023

the world. By tightening financial conditions globally, these shocks affect the left tail of the conditional output growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258313

Common Shocks, Common Dynamics and the International Business Cycle

Centoni, Marco - 2006

This paper proposes an econometric framework to assess the importance of common shocks and common transmission mechanisms ingenerating international business cycles. Then we show how to decompose the cyclical effects of permanent-transitory shocks into those due to their domestic and those due...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012733159

Are We Already in a Global Recession?

Erber, Georg - 2016

. Furthermore there is evidence that the World Economy Outlook published by the IMF has systematically been biased upwards …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012980647

Global Recessions

Kose, M. Ayhan - 2020

The world economy has experienced four global recessions over the past seven decades: in 1975, 1982, 1991, and 2009 …, with severe economic and financial disruptions in many countries around the world. The 2009 global recession, set off by …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012841841