This paper provides new evidence on the formation and anchoring process of expectations. We conduct a game experiment and measure the convergence of inflation expectations as well as the impact of credible targets in central banking. In addition, we evaluate the idiosyncratic variables of our...

This paper extends a standard New Keynesian model to describe the effects of anticipated shocks to inflation and forward-looking monetary policy. Using the data generated from this modified model suggests that overlooking these two factors in the standard Cholesky structural vector...

We propose a new approach to assessing the anchoring of inflation expectations using "strategic surveys". Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. A key advantage of this approach is that it provides a...

Highly volatile transition dynamics can emerge when a central bank disinflates while operating without full transparency. In our model, a central bank commits to a Taylor rule whose form is known but whose coefficients are not. Private agents learn about policy parameters via Bayesian updating....

We investigate the degree of anchoring in inflation expectations for different advanced economies using data from professional forecasters' surveys. We define expectations as anchored when movements in short-run expectations do not trigger movements in expectations at longer horizons. Using...

This paper exploits a natural experiment in India – Inflation Targeting to study how changes in inflation expectations influence households’ consumption, savings, and investments in risky assets. Using regional heterogeneity in inflation expectations by city and city-age-gender bins due to...

Since the 2001 recession, average core inflation has been below the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This deflationary bias is a predictable consequence of a low nominal interest rates environment. When monetary policy faces the risk of encountering the zero lower bound, in.ation tends to remain...

Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD) and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in...

This paper examines the interaction of core inflation and inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. Interest in core inflation has grown because of inflation targeting. Core inflation is defined in numerous ways giving rise to many potential measures; this paper defines core inflation as...

We examine how private sector agents might learn a new monetary strategy that is adopted while at the ELB. Little can be discovered until the economy improves enough that rates would be near liftoff under the old strategy. Recessionary shocks would thus delay learning while large inflationary...