We conduct a comprehensive international study of predictability in housing markets using the rent-price ratio as a predictive variable. On data from 18 OECD countries we generally find return predictability in accordance with time-varying risk-premia, but we also document two puzzles. First,...

Recent local price growth explains differences in search behavior across prospective homebuyers. Those experiencing higher growth in their postcode of residence search more broadly across locations and house characteristics, without changing attention devoted to individual sales listings....

The co-movement of buyers and vacancies, i.e. the Beveridge Curve, is a key determinant of the cyclical properties of the housing market. It determines the sign of the correlation between prices and key measures of liquidity such as vacancies (i.e. houses for sale), sales, and time-to-sell. As...

We investigate the feature of housing markets under adaptive and heterogeneous expectations. Model agents have finite horizons and borrowings are constrained by the collateral value of housing stock. Our model shows that expectation-driven house price dynamics constantly change the direction of...

This chapter surveys the literature on the microstructure of housing markets. It considers one-sided search, random matching, and directed search models. It also examines the bargaining that takes place once a match has occurred, with the bargaining taking various forms, including two-party...

This paper examines whether the degree of interconnectivity among local housing markets affects the effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism in the U.S. economy. We construct measures of housing market connectedness and use a state-dependent local projection method to estimate...

This paper tries to explain different nature of the dynamics during the upward and downward part of the last house price cycle in Spain. Covered bonds are introduced as an instrument which may accelerate a house price boom, while it may also serve as a source of correction to overvalued house...

It is well-documented that housing leads the business cycle at the national level. Dating back as far as the great depression, nearly every recession or boom has been preceded by a respective drop or rise in residential investment (Green, 1997; Leamer, 2007). However, neither the business cycle nor...

China's real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond...

This study looks at real estate price booms and busts in industrialised countries. It identifies major and persistent deviations from long term trends for 18 countries and estimates the probabilities of their occurrence using a Random Effects Panel Probit model over the period 1980-2007. It...