We develop a framework for measuring and monitoring business cycles in real time. Following a long tradition in macroeconometrics, inference is based on a variety of indicators of economic activity, treated as imperfect measures of an underlying index of business cycle conditions. We extend...

This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area covering more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank (ECB) Monthly Bulletin, as made available ahead of publication to the Governing Council members before their first meeting of the month....

In this paper, we extract common factors from a cross-section of U.S. macro-variables and Treasury zero-coupon yields. We find that two macroeconomic factors have an important predictive content for government bond yields and excess returns. These factors are not spanned by the cross-section of...

This study analyzes the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroeconomic fundamentals. We identify these innovations with macroeconomic news, defined as differences between the actual releases and their market expectations. We show that macroeconomic news explain about...

This paper describes how we constructed a real-time database for the euro area. The database covers more than 200 series regularly published in the European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin, as made available to the Governing Council members for their first monthly meeting. We study the properties...

We analyze the reaction of the U.S. Treasury bond market to innovations in macroe-economic fundamentals. We identify these innovations based on macroeconomic news, which are defined as differences between the actual releases and market expectations. We find that that macroeconomic news explain...