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specifications. We evaluate it in real time over 2013-2022 and find that (i) monthly indicators provide useful information for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194
leverage a novel real-time dataset to conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011485951
This paper develops Bayesian econometric methods for posterior inference in non-parametric mixed frequency VARs using additive regression trees. We argue that regression tree models are ideally suited for macroeconomic nowcasting in the face of extreme observations, for instance those produced...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243790
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists …": the large number of time series continuously released (Volume), the complexity of the data covering various sectors of the … and produce, in real time, accurate probabilistic predictions of US economic activity and, in addition, a meaningful …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259379
The term now-casting is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology and … models that formalize key features of how market participants and policy makers read macroeconomic data releases in real time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605609
Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists …": the large number of time series continuously released (Volume), the complexity of the data covering various sectors of the … and produce, in real time, accurate probabilistic predictions of US economic activity and, in addition, a meaningful …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825850
Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374171
We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012724680
We construct a framework for measuring economic activity at high frequency, potentially in real time. We use a variety …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014214485
We construct a framework for measuring economic activity in real time (e.g., minute-by-minute), using a variety of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014224022