Yes, they are! We find that although there is a surprisingly high dispersion of individual forecasts and some dissent on the Federal Funds target, the FOMC’s individual behavior is well described by a Taylor-type rule.

Based on a large international panel of surveyed GDP forecasts I analyze the frequency of forecast revisions and the factors that influence the likelihood of forecast revisions. I find that each month on average 40%–50% of forecasters revise their forecasts. In addition, I find that the...

We analyze more than 40,000 forecasts of the annual growth rate of the money supply, the inflation rate, and the growth rate for eleven Asian–Pacific countries between 1994 and 2011. We document that forecasters believe in nominal effects of future monetary policy.

The Livingston survey data are used to investigate whether economists’ forecasts are consistent with the Taylor principle. Consistency with the Taylor principle is strong for academics and Federal Reserve economists, and less strong for private-sector economists.

This paper studies the All Ordinaries Index in Australia, and its futures contract known as the Share Price Index. We use a new form of smooth transition model to account for a variety of nonlinearities caused by transaction costs and other market/data imperfections, and given the recent...

This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989 - 2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rate as suggested by the traditional and Samuelson-and-Solow-type Phillips curve. Three major findings stand out: First, we...

In the course of the energy transition, the German Commission on "Growth, Structural Change and Employment" recommended a stepwise phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation until 2038 and a partly substitution by gas-fired power plants. In this context local externalities of various types...

In this paper, we use data from a new household-level panel survey to estimate short- and long-run price elasticities of residential electricity demand in Switzerland. We exploit Switzerland's unique local variation in topography-related grid maintenance costs and electricity taxation, to...

With its commitment to double the share of renewable fuels in electricity generation to at least 30% by 2020, the German government has embarked on a potentially costly policy course whose public support remains an open empirical question. Building on household survey data, in this paper we...

We empirically analyze convergence of European producer and consumer prices for diesel fuel and investigate the role of excise taxation. By comparing the speed of convergence of prices and taxes we find a surprisingly fast speed of convergence for consumer prices. While this can in part be...