We estimate the age distribution's effect on business cycle fluctuations across a large number of countries. A 10 percentage point increase in the middle-aged share of the population decreases output volatility by 15 percent for the average country

I exploit the variation in demographic change across the United States to estimate the relationship between the age distribution in the population and the magnitude of cyclical output volatility. According to panel regression estimates the relative supply of young workers, or youth share, has a...

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for...

Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. In this paper we do something else: using data on more than 100 million births and focusing on within-year changes in fertility, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, the growth rate for...

This paper examines the early effects of dismantling the one-child (fertility) policy, which China relaxed in 2013 and eliminated prior to 2017. Birth rates, female labor force participation, and saving behavior have already changed. Between 2015 and 2017, the proportion of households with...

We estimate the age distribution's impact on carbon dioxide emissions from 1990 to 2006 by exploiting demographic variation in a panel of 46 countries. To eliminate potential bias from endogeneity or omitted variables, we instrument for the age distribution in a country's current population with...

We estimate the effect of household appliance ownership on the labor force participation rate of married women using micro-level data from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses. In order to identify the causal effect of home appliance ownership on married women's labor force participation rates, our...

The fraction of the labor force under the age of 35, or youth share, has been correlated with cyclical GDP volatility over the past several decades. The youth share and business cycle fluctuations were high during the 1970's. Then, as the population aged, output volatility declined. I develop an...

The cyclical volatility of U.S. gross domestic product suddenly declined during the early 1980's and remained low for over 20 years. I develop a labor search model with worker heterogeneity and match-specific costs to show how an increase in the supply of high-skill workers can contribute to a...