Using time-varying BVARs, we find that oil price increases caused by oil supply shocks did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply - resulting from bad...

The purpose of this paper is to present a measure of relative price variability (RPV) among 53 agricultural products and to explore the relationships between RPV, aggregate inflation rate, and changes in economic activity for the period 1962-1997. We also estimate the effects of expected and...

This paper analyzes the distribution (marketing) channel behavior and pricing method of commodities that mostly contribute to inflation in Batam, those are chicken meat, spinach, red chili pepper, string bean, large frog (kangkung), mackerel (selar), and tuna fish (tongkol). The objectives of...

This study investigates the disconnect between falling agricultural commodity prices and persistent food inflation by applying a Heterogeneous Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to a panel of 203 countries using data from 1961 to 2022. It analyzes the impact of global crops, fertilizer, and oil...

COVID-19 induced lock down has disrupted the food markets and commodity prices in India. This paper uses evidence from the official statistics on daily wholesale and retail prices (n=284) for major commodities by adopting interrupted timeseries analysis (ITSA). The results revealed that prices...

This research examines spatial integration in Mexican regional-food markets, with an emphasis on the degree of processing. The analysis employs a pairwise approach to evaluate the convergence of price differentials for each item across city pairs. Additionally, it examines the influence of...

This study investigates the disconnect between falling agricultural commodity prices and persistent food inflation by applying a Heterogeneous Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to a panel of 203 countries using data from 1961 to 2022. It analyzes the impact of global crops, fertilizer, and oil...

Supply constraints hurt the economic recovery and boosted inflation in 2021. We find that in the euro area, manufacturing output and GDP would have been about 6 and 2 percent higher, respectively, and half of the rise in manufacturing producer price inflation would not have occurred in the...

We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial,...

We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity....