Alan Greenspan’s paper (March 2010) presents his retrospective view of the crisis. His theme has several parts. First, the housing price bubble, its subsequent collapse and the financial crisis were not predicted either by the market, the FED, the IMF or the regulators in the years leading to...

Purpose: The liquefied natural gas (LNG) business comprises a number of economic activities with inherent risks. This paper proposes an integrated modelling approach, as part of the investment decision making process, for optimising economic returns from LNG whilst taking into account...

We address a credit risk model with optimal switching in which a firm optimally switches between two different diffusion regimes. A default boundary and the switching thresholds are endogenously determined, and we examine how the triggers and credit spreads are affected by the differences in...

We examine the problem of decision making using a probabilistic model when there is material uncertainty concerning the accuracy of the model coupled with limited information about it. Such conditions could hold, for example, for the user of a complex commercial model of natural catastrophe...

We introduce and study the main properties of a class of convex risk measures that refine Expected Shortfall by simultaneously controlling the expected losses associated with different portions of the tail distribution. The corresponding adjusted Expected Shortfalls quantify risk as the minimum...

The recent evolution of prudential regulation establishes a new requirement for banks and supervisors to perform reverse stress test exercises in their risk assessment processes, aimed at detecting default or near-default scenarios. We propose a reverse stress test methodology based on a...

In this paper, we study the worst-case distortion risk measure when information about distortion functions is partially available. We obtain the explicit forms of the worst-case distortion functions from several different sets of plausible distortion functions. When there is no concavity...

I develop a dynamic capital structure model to examine how the nature of risk affects firm's debt policy. In the model, firm's fundamental risk, captured by its cash flow process, consists of transitory and persistent parts with markedly different dynamics. The model explains the observed...

The regulatory use of banks' internal models makes capital requirements more risk-sensitive but invites regulatory arbitrage. I develop a framework to study bank regulation with strategic selection of risk models. A bank supervisor can discourage arbitrage by auditing risk models, and implements...