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We build an equilibrium model to explain why stock return predictability concentrates in bad times. The key feature is that investors use different forecasting models, and hence assess uncertainty differently. As economic conditions deteriorate, uncertainty rises and investors' opinions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011721618
How important are volatility fluctuations for asset prices and the macroeconomy? We find that a rise in macroeconomic … volatility is associated with a rise in discount rates and a decline in consumption. To study the impact of volatility we provide … a framework in which cashflow, discount-rate, and volatility risks determine risk premia. We show that volatility plays …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012825227
market volatility. A relatively high return dispersion predicts a deterioration in business conditions, a higher value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013024179
Commonality in idiosyncratic volatility cannot be completely explained by time-varying volatility. We decompose the … common factor in idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) of Herskovic et al. (2016) into two components: idiosyncratic volatility … innovations (VIN) and time-varyingidiosyncratic volatility (TVV). VIN is priced in the cross section of stock returns, whereas TVV …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902994
volatility over the benchmark rational expectations case and exactly matches the standard deviation of consumption. Finally, the … model generates time varying volatility consistent with the data on quarterly equity returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054127
volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903723
predictive variance. We show theoretically how this adjustment factor affects both average and volatility of excess returns. We … related to excess volatility as predicted by the model. Further confirming the model's implications, we also show how stock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487731
Historically, value stocks earn higher average returns than growth stocks; however, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) cannot explain this pattern, which is called the value premium puzzle. This study shows that uncertainty shocks can explain the puzzle. Intuitively, the value of growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965668
-run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004) by allowing both a long- and a short-run volatility components in the evolution of … economic fundamentals. With this extension, the new model not only is consistent with the volatility literature that the stock … market is driven by two, rather than one, volatility factors, but also provides significant improvements in fitting various …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071174
risky assets. The daily stock returns at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE) are characterized by high volatility and non …-Gaussian behaviors as well as they are extremely leptokurtic. The analysis of MSE time series stock returns determine volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456336