Showing 1 - 10 of 143,536
improved ex-post volatility measurements but has also inspired research into their potential value as an informa-tion source … for longer horizon volatility forecasts. In this paper we explore the forecasting value of these high fre-quency series in … conjunction with a variety of volatility models for returns on the Standard & Poor's 100 stock index. We consider two so …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326944
We introduce the class of FIR-GARCH models in this paper. FIR-GARCH models provide a parsimonious joint model for low-frequency returns and realized measures, and are sufficiently flexible to capture long memory as well as asymmetries related to leverage effects. We analyze the performances of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013029008
The development of technology and the globalization of financial markets have increased the volatility in financial …, can use in estimating the BIST 100 Index return volatility. For this purpose, ARCH and GARCH models, as symmetric models … among related models in revealing BIST 100 Index return volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281313
Density forecasts have become quite important in economics and finance. For example, such forecasts play a central role in modern financial risk management techniques like Value at Risk. This paper suggests a regression based density forecast evaluation framework as a simple alternative to other...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431370
-day and intra-day volatility models by estimating the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-skT and the AR(1)-HAR-RV-skT frameworks, respectively … intra-day volatility model is not as appropriate as it was expected to be for each of the different asset classes; stock … performance of the inter-day and intra-day volatility models across various markets. The inter-day specification predicts and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910113
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991280
past domestic volatilities does not generally affect the mean and the volatility of the estimated thresholds. Specifically …, with the exception of the Italian market we find at least two volatility regimes, due to an asymmetric structure of … volatility as a function of bad and good domestic news. Moreover, in the majority of the series under scrutiny we also identify …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014089647
Using well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole density, whereas the Bayesian approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976219
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013054678
returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034867