The long-run risks model of asset prices explains stock price variation as a response to persistent fluctuations in the mean and volatility of aggregate consumption growth, by a representative agent with a high elasticity of intertemporal substitution. This paper documents several empirical...

The joint-hypothesis problem casts doubt on the results of market efficiency research. Specifically, it is hard to assess to what extent financial markets reflect economic fundamentals or mispricing. To address this issue, we study price formation in a large virtual asset market where...

We introduce a new meaure of risk appetite in financial markets, based on the cross sectional behavior of excess returns. Turning them into probabilities through a Markov Switching model, we define one global risk appetite measure as the cross-sectional average of the individual probabilities...

Recent findings on the term structure of equity and bond yields pose serious challenges to existing models of equilibrium asset pricing. This paper presents a new equilibrium model of subjective expectations to explain the joint historical dynamics of equity and bond yields (and their yield...

Realized variance can be broken down into continuous volatility and jumps. We show that these two components have very different predictive powers on future long-term excess stock market returns. While continuous volatility is a key driver of medium to long-term risk-return relationships, jumps...

We study the role of information in asset pricing models with long-run cash flow risk. When investors can distinguish short- from long-run consumption risks (full information), the model generates a sizable equity risk premium only if the equity term structure slopes up, contrary to the data. In...

This paper focuses on four major aggregate stock price indexes (SP 500, Stock Europe 600, Nikkei 225, Shanghai Composite) and two "safe-haven" assets (Gold, Swiss Franc), and explores their return co-movements during the last two decades. Significant contagion effects on stock markets are...