Dans cet article, nous proposons une démarche originale visant à évaluer la capacité des tests usuels de backtesting à discriminer différentes prévisions de Value at Risk (VaR) ne fournissant pas la même évaluation ex-ante du risque. Nos résultats montrent que, pour un même actif, ces...

This paper proposes an original framework to determine the relative influence of fivefactors on the Feldstein and Horioka result of OECD countries with a strong saving-investment association. Based on panel threshold regression models, we establishcountry-specific and time-specific saving...

L'objet de ce papier est de dresser un panorama complet de la littérature relative aux tests de cointégration sur données de panel. Après un exposé des concepts spécifiques à la cointégration en panel, sont ainsi présentés les tests de l'hypothèse nulle d'absence de cointégration...

This article proposes an overview of the recent developments relating to panel unit root tests. After a brief review of the first generation panel unit root tests, this paper focuses on the tests belonging to the second generation. The latter category of tests is characterized by the rejection...

Bank credit to Egypt's private sector decreased over the last decade, despite a recapitalized banking system and high rates of economic growth. Recent macro-economic turmoil has reinforced the trend. This paper explains the decrease based on credit supply and demand considerations by 1)...

In this study, we systemically apply nine recent panel unit root tests to the same 14 macroeconomic and financial series as those considered in the seminal paper by Nelson and Plosser (1982). The data covers OECD countries from 1950 to 2003. Our results clearly point out the difficulty that...

Using panel data models, the author examines the threshold effects of the productivity of infrastructure investment in developing countries. He considers various specifications of an augmented production function that allow for endogenous thresholds. More precisely, these specifications are...

The study estimates the probability of being downgraded at the time of the first employment according to individual socio-demographic, professional and education characteristics. This study, based on a very large French database, reveals the influence of the subjective or objective definitions...

This paper proposes a new test of Value at Risk (VaR) validation. Our test exploits the idea that the sequence of VaR violations (Hit function) - taking value 1-α, if there is a violation, and -α otherwise - for a nominal coverage rate α verifies the properties of a martingale difference if...