Cet article généralise l'approche de Bollerslev et Zhang (2003) qui consiste à utiliser des mesures et co-mesures de risque « réalisées » pour l'estimation des sensibilités dans les modèles d'évaluation des actifs financiers. Nous proposons ici d'étendre cette approche en introduisant...

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model free test can be used to evaluate intervals forecasts and High Density Regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J-statistic, based on the moments de ned by the orthonormal polynomials...

In this paper we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be considered as a non-linear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary time-series data. To estimate it, we implement an exact maximum-likelihood approach, hence providing a solution to the...

In many poor countries, the problem is not that governments do not invest, but that these investments do not create productive capital. So, the cost of public investments does not correspond to the value of the capital stocks. In this paper, we propose an original non parametric approach to...

Beyond the general issue of institutional change at the aggregate level, some studies have shown that the diversity of Japanese firms has increased since the late 1990s, both in terms of performance and organization. This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the evolving...

Bank credit to Egypt's private sector decreased over the last decade, despite a recapitalized banking system and high rates of economic growth. Recent macro-economic turmoil has reinforced the trend. This paper explains the decrease based on credit supply and demand considerations by 1)...

Traditionally, nancial crisis Early Warning Systems (EWSs) rely on macroeconomic leading indicators to forecast the occurrence of such events. This paper extends such discrete-choice EWSs by taking into account the persistence of the crisis phenomenon. The dynamic logit EWS is estimated using an...