In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

This paper extends the Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility (SV-DPM) model of Jensen and Maheu (2010). Instead of using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) to model return innovations, we use an infinite hidden Markov model (IHMM). This allows for time variation in the return density...

The time-series dynamics of short-term interest rates are important as they are a key input into pricing models of the term structure of interest rates. In this paper we extend popular discrete time short-rate models to include Markov switching of infinite dimension. This is a Bayesian...

Empirical volatility studies have discovered nonstationary, long-memory dynamics in the volatility of the stock market and foreign exchange rates. This highly persistent, infinite variance - but still mean reverting - behavior is commonly found with nonparametric estimates of the fractional...

Particle Filter algorithms for filtering latent states (volatility and jumps) of Stochastic-Volatility Jump-Diffusion (SVJD) models are being explained. Three versions of the SIR particle filter with adapted proposal distributions to the jump occurrences, jump sizes, and both are derived and...

In this paper we consider bayesian semiparametric regression within the generalized linear model framework. Specifically, we study a class of autoregressive time series where the time trend is incorporated in a nonparametrically way. Estimation and inference where performed through Markov Chain...

The time-series dynamics of short-term interest rates are important as they are a key input into pricing models of the term structure of interest rates. In this paper we extend popular discrete time short-rate models to include Markov switching of infinite dimension. This is a Bayesian...

This paper is concerned with the empirical investigation of models of the US short term interest rate, using a mixture of classical non-parametric methods and of Bayesian parametric methods. The shape of the drift and volatility functions of the usual diffusion equation are first investigated...

This paper is concerned with the empirical investigation of models of the US short term interest rate, using a mixture of classical non-parametric methods and of Bayesian parametric methods. The shape of the drift and volatility functions of the usual di usion equation are rst investigated using...

Time series of financial asset values exhibit well known statistical features such as heavy tails and volatility clustering. Strongly present in some series, nonstationarity is a feature that has been somewhat overlooked. This may however be a highly relevant feature when estimating extreme...