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financial conditions have some inflation forecasting ability over the monetary policy relevant two to three-year horizon during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012999067
This paper analyzes how the OECD revises potential output (PO) estimates after recessions. We show that downward revisions are substantial and mostly driven by supply shocks while PO estimates do not significantly react to demand shocks. In addition, revisions are partly caused by avoidable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011798221
gap and inflation for the Turkish economy using data from 2002:01 to 2021:09. First, it analyses the cointegration by …. The results also show asymmetric causality running from positive (negative) output gap to positive (negative) inflation … shock, and running from negative inflation shock to negative output gap shock. The overall findings indicate the importance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014516257
In this paper, we examine whether domestic or global output gap affects inflation in three panels: the European Union … inflation in individual countries of the European Union. To find the determinants of inflation, we employ the Granger causality … show that after the crisis the global output gap predicts the evolution of inflation in the Eurozone panel. On the other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014464251
, to assess the Phillips curve's ability to explain inflation dynamics over a wide variety of circumstances, over the 150 … years of the country's history. In Italy, the relation linking inflation with the cyclical situation in the economy emerged …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013084368
We incorporate adaptive learning-based inflation expectations in an Unobserved Components model in order to study the … link between inflation and the output gap. The forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve serves as the backbone for … modeling inflation dynamics. We find that learning based inflation forecasts not only shadow survey expectations in the pre …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234838
In this paper, we present international comparisons of potential output growth among several economies - Canada, the Euro area, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States - for the period 1991-2004. The main estimates rely on a structural approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316775
This paper describes the methodology used in the OECD Economics Department to produce historical estimates and short-run projections of potential output. These estimates are used mainly in the OECD Economic Outlook, in country surveys and as starting point for long-run scenarios. Total-economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012111102
Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap can guide the timing of the implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011283442
Using European Commission real-time data, we show that potential output (PO) estimates were substantially and persistently revised downwards after the Great Recession. We decompose PO revisions into revisions of the capital stock, trend labor, and trend total-factor productivity (TFP)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866365