We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional...

We analyze and compare the properties of various methods for bias-correcting parameter estimates in vector autoregressions. First, we show that two analytical bias formulas from the existing literature are in fact identical. Next, based on a detailed simulation study, we show that this simple...

Vector-autoregressive models are used to decompose housing returns in 18 OECD countries into cash ow (rent) news and discount rate (return) news over the period 1970-2011. For the majority of countries news about future returns is the main driver, and both real interest rates and risk-premia...

We extend the VAR based intertemporal asset allocation approach from Campbell et al. (2003) to the case where the VAR parameter estimates are adjusted for small-sample bias. We apply the analytical bias formula from Pope (1990) using both Campbell et al.'s dataset, and an extended dataset with...

We conduct a comprehensive international study of predictability in housing markets using the rent-price ratio as a predictive variable. On data from 18 OECD countries we generally find return predictability in accordance with time-varying risk-premia, but we also document two puzzles. First,...

In long-term US stock market data the price-dividend ratio strongly predicts future inflation with a positive slope coefficient up to the mid 1970s. Thereafter, the predictability turns negative. We argue that this phenomenon reflects money illusion that disappears during the 1970s. We develop a...

We conduct an econometric analysis of bubbles in housing markets in the OECD area, using quarterly OECD data for 18 countries from 1970 to 2013. We pay special attention to the explosive nature of bubbles and use econometric methods that explicitly allow for explosiveness. First, we apply the...

Unpredictable dividend growth by the dividend-price ratio is considered a 'stylized fact' in post war US data. Using long-term annual data from the US and three European countries, we revisit this stylized fact, and we also report results on return predictability. We make two main contributions....