In a Markov decision problem with hidden state variables, a posterior distribution serves as a state variable and Bayes' law under an approximating model gives its law of motion. A decision maker expresses fear that his model is misspecified by surrounding it with a set of alternatives that are...

"This paper illustrates how to use instrumental variables procedures to estimate the parameters of a linear rational expectations model. These procedures are appropriate when disturbances are serially correlated and the instrumental variables are not exogenous"--Federal Reserve Bank of...

"This paper shows how the cross-equation restrictions delivered by the hypothesis of rational expectations can serve to solve the aliasing identification problem. It is shown how the rational expectations restrictions uniquely identify the parameters of a continuous time model from statistics of...

"This paper shows how the cross-equation restrictions implied by dynamic rational expectations models can be used to resolve the aliasing identification problem. Using a continuous time, linear-quadratic optimization environment, this paper describes how the resulting restrictions are sufficient...

"This paper describes methods for estimating the parameters of continuous time linear stochastic rational expectations models from discrete time observations. The economic models that we study are continuous time, multiple variable, stochastic, linear-quadratic rational expectations models. The...

"This paper describes how to specify and estimate rational expectations models in which there are exact linear relationships among variables and expectations of variables that the econometrician observes"--Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis web site

"A prediction formula for geometrically declining sums of future forcing variables is derived for models in which the forcing variables are generated by a vector autoregressive-moving average process. This formula is useful in deducing and characterizing cross-equation restrictions implied by...