Are excess returns predictable and if so, what does this mean for investors? Previous literature has tended toward two polar viewpoints: that predictability is useful only if the statistical evidence for it is incontrovertible, or that predictability should affect portfolio choice, even if the...

We examine the evidence on excess stock return predictability in a Bayesian setting in which the investor faces uncertainty about both the existence and strength of predictability. When we apply our methods to the dividend-price ratio, we find that even investors who are quite skeptical about...

This paper examines the impact of bank capital ratios on bank lending by comparing differences in loan growth to differences in capital ratios at sets of banks that are matched based on geographic area as well as size and various business characteristics. We argue that such comparisons are most...

We estimate a dynamic investment model in which firms finance with equity, cash, or debt. Misvaluation affects equity values, and firms optimally issue and repurchase overvalued and undervalued shares. The funds flowing to and from these activities come from investment, dividends, or net cash....

Purchases and sales of operating assets by firms generated $162 billion for shareholders over the past 20 years. This contrasts sharply with the evidence on mergers. This paper characterizes the behavior of value-maximizing firms, which may grow organically, purchase existing assets or sell...

The purchase and sale of operating assets by firms created $162 billion for shareholders over the past 20 years. This paper characterizes the behavior of value-maximizing firms, which may invest in new capital, purchase existing assets or sell assets. This approach yields an endogenous selection...

Are excess returns predictable and if so, what does this mean for investors? Previous literature has tended toward two polar viewpoints: that predictability is useful only if the statistical evidence for it is incontrovertible, or that predictability should affect portfolio choice, even if the...

The effect of financing frictions on firm productivity growth is not well understood. Using a model we show that a rise in financial frictions leads to increased sensitivity of productivity growth to the use of external finance. We test this prediction using a large dataset of mostly private...

A rational, efficiency-based view of acquisitions imply that larger transactions generate greater gains for the acquirer and the seller. We test this prediction and find a positive relationship between acquirer abnormal returns and transaction size. This relationship holds for many classes of...

We develop a dynamic model of the innovative firms that invest in monetization, which represents the process of generating revenues from services provided to customers at no charge. The model reflects the challenges faced by firms that operate via the Internet, whose dynamics are shaped by the...